State Centre on Climate Change
under aegis of the State Council for Science Technology & Environment
Himachal Pradesh

   


To understand climate change and its impact on the Himalayan Eco-System by developing and implementing mountain spicific adaptation plans based on vulnerability,risk scenario and by enhancing capacity of all stake holders to combat the threat of climate change.
Skip Navigation Links
Home
About usExpand About us
GoI InitiativesExpand GoI Initiatives
Organisational StructureExpand Organisational Structure
Action Plan
ProjectsExpand Projects
Data AnalysisExpand Data Analysis
Our PartnersExpand Our Partners
Our Team
Act before its too late !!
earth

Skip Navigation Links
Objectives
Working GroupExpand Working Group
ChallengesExpand Challenges
Published LiteratureExpand Published Literature
Current Scenario
Future Projections
News and Media
Notifications
Shimla Declaration
Photo Gallery
Related Links
Contact us
Feedback
Directory of Scientists
Vacancy
Documents
NCHG-Abstract Vol.

Future Climatic Projections:

As per the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) studies the projected changes in 2030s in India are: (Source: INCCA REPORT #2, CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA:A 4X4 ASSESSMENTA SECTORAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS FOR 2030S, Nov.2010)

  • Coupled model simulations from IPCC AR4 show large uncertainty in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall, however a MME of 10 selected models give reasonably good representation of monsoon though with a dry bias.
  • MME projects around 10% increase in the Indian monsoon rainfall over central and peninsular India in 2030's. The expected change in the rainfall is within the current monsoon variability and there are large model to model differences making these projected changes to be lesser confident.
  • MME projects 1.5-2°C warming in the annual mean temperature over the Indian landmass while winter (Jan-Feb) and spring (Mar-Apr-May) seasons show higher warming.
  • High resolution regional climate model ‘PRECIS’ shows good skill in representing smaller scale features of monsoon.
  • The projections of PRECIS in 2030's indicate 3-7% increase in all-India summer monsoon rainfall.
  • The annual mean surface air temperature may rise from 1.7°C to 2°C by 2030's as indicated by the three simulations
  • The regional climate model simulations indicate that the cyclonic disturbances over Indian oceans during summer monsoon are likely to be more intense and the systems may form slightly to the south of normal locations.
  • The ensemble mean changes in the monsoon rainfall are in the range of 2 to 12% while the annual temperature changes are of the order of 1.4 to 1.9oc, however the individual simulations show large differences.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
A Government of Himachal Pradesh Initiative to combat the effect of Climate Change on Himalayan ecosystem
If you like to share this web site with others, please add it to your web site with a link to www.himachal.nic.in/hpscste
Disclaimer: © State Council for Science, Technology & Environment, HP, All rights reserved
Recommended browsers: Internet Explorer, Firefox
Developed by: State Centre on Climate Change, Himachal Pradesh