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Act before its too late !!
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Future Climatic Projections:
As per the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) studies the projected
changes in 2030s in India are: (Source: INCCA
REPORT #2, CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA:A 4X4 ASSESSMENTA SECTORAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS
FOR 2030S, Nov.2010)
- Coupled model simulations from IPCC AR4 show large uncertainty in simulating Indian
summer monsoon rainfall, however a MME of 10 selected models give reasonably good
representation of monsoon though with a dry bias.
- MME projects around 10% increase in the Indian monsoon rainfall over central and
peninsular India in 2030's. The expected change in the rainfall is within the current
monsoon variability and there are large model to model differences making these
projected changes to be lesser confident.
- MME projects 1.5-2°C warming in the annual mean temperature over the Indian landmass
while winter (Jan-Feb) and spring (Mar-Apr-May) seasons show higher warming.
- High resolution regional climate model ‘PRECIS’ shows good skill in representing
smaller scale features of monsoon.
- The projections of PRECIS in 2030's indicate 3-7% increase in all-India summer monsoon
rainfall.
- The annual mean surface air temperature may rise from 1.7°C to 2°C by 2030's as indicated
by the three simulations
- The regional climate model simulations indicate that the cyclonic disturbances over
Indian oceans during summer monsoon are likely to be more intense and the systems
may form slightly to the south of normal locations.
- The ensemble mean changes in the monsoon rainfall are in the range of 2 to 12% while
the annual temperature changes are of the order of 1.4 to 1.9oc, however the individual
simulations show large differences.
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